Soaring Costs and Rice Shortages Shake Japan’s Ruling Coalition Ahead of Election

‍Tokyo — With rising prices, stagnant wages, and growing voter frustration over social security burdens, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a critical test in Sunday’s upper house election. The outcome could determine not just his political survival, but also the direction of a nation grappling with economic uncertainty and a surge in nationalist sentiment.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), already weakened by an embarrassing defeat in last October’s lower house election, is struggling to regain public trust amid corruption scandals, inflation, and a spiraling rice crisis. The ruling coalition’s shrinking support base has forced Ishiba to make legislative concessions to the opposition, weakening his government's ability to address urgent economic concerns.

At the heart of voter anxiety is a dramatic spike in rice prices doubling over the past year due to poor harvests, distribution inefficiencies, and broader structural issues in Japan’s farming sector. Supermarkets have seen panic buying, and despite the government's emergency release of rice reserves under new farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi, public discontent remains high.

Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and a rising political star, has emerged as a potential challenger to Ishiba, gaining favor for his swift action on the rice crisis.

Compounding Ishiba’s troubles are trade tensions with the United States. President Donald Trump has criticized Japan’s slow progress on trade negotiations, particularly over auto and agricultural imports, and is preparing to implement a punishing 25% tariff on Japanese goods starting August 1. Ishiba has resisted concessions ahead of the vote, but analysts warn that his government, already a minority in the Diet, may find post-election negotiations just as difficult.

Sunday’s vote will decide half the seats in Japan’s 248-member upper house. Ishiba has set a low bar—a simple majority. To retain control, the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito must win at least 50 of the 124 contested seats, which, when added to their 75 uncontested seats, would still represent a steep decline from their current total of 141.

A failure to secure a majority could trigger calls from within the LDP to replace Ishiba. “There will be a move within the LDP to dump Ishiba,” said Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo. Even if he survives the election, Ishiba’s leadership is likely to remain fragile, with diminished authority and reliance on opposition cooperation to pass legislation.

Amid growing dissatisfaction, fringe populist parties are gaining ground. The Sanseito party, running on a fiercely nationalist “Japanese First” platform, has called for stricter immigration controls, exclusion of non-citizens from welfare, and the establishment of a new agency to oversee foreign affairs. Critics warn that this rhetoric, amplified across social media, has fueled xenophobia and disinformation, despite official statistics showing that foreigners account for only 3% of Japan’s population and welfare recipients.

The LDP has tried to shore up support by adopting a tougher stance on illegal immigration, foreign labor, and delinquent medical payments. But these measures have sparked protests from human rights advocates and concerns among Japan’s 3 million foreign residents.

This shift is particularly risky for a country facing a labor shortage due to its aging and shrinking population. “Japan needs foreign workers and must rethink immigration policy strategically,” said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute.

Opposition forces including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), and Sanseito have gained momentum, drawing disillusioned conservative voters. However, their inability to form a united front weakens their viability as an alternative government.

Talks of a trilateral coalition involving the Komeito and Japan Innovation Party have resurfaced, especially if the ruling coalition fails to hold its upper house majority. Such a shakeup could reignite debate on previously blocked progressive policies, including consumption tax cuts, same-sex marriage legalization, and surname flexibility for married couples.

Former Prime Minister and CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda suggested a major loss for Ishiba could finally open space for real legislative change: “If the ruling bloc loses control of both houses, it’s a new ballgame.”

As Japan heads into the vote, the stakes are high not only for Ishiba’s political career but for a nation at a critical crossroads between tradition and change, austerity and reform, globalism and nationalism.

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Source: NDTV‍